- Arthur Hayes projects a 126x upside for Hyperliquid’s HYPE based on a $5.161 trillion terminal value.
- The model assumes a $10 trillion stablecoin supply by 2028 and a 26.4% trading share for Hyperliquid.
Arthur Hayes said Hyperliquid’s HYPE could deliver a 126x return and implied a fully diluted valuation aligned with a $5.161 trillion terminal value. He presented the framework at the WebX conference in Tokyo on August 25, 2025.
Hayes Models $5.161 Trillion Terminal Value Using 5% Discount Rate
The model links HYPE’s value accrual to exchange revenues as stablecoin activity expands. Hayes’s slides assume global stablecoin supply reaches $10 trillion by 2028 and that Hyperliquid captures 26.4% of average daily volume tied to this growth.
He projects annualized fees rising from roughly $1.2 billion to $258 billion, then discounts future cash flows at 5% to reach a $5.161 trillion terminal value.
Using a current HYPE fully diluted valuation of about $41.05 billion as the reference point, the framework yields a 126x upside. The figures rely on a net trading fee assumption and the premise that Hyperliquid’s market share expands in tandem with stablecoin settlement.
Hayes emphasized the sensitivity of outcomes to fee rates, share capture, and the discount rate embedded in the terminal value.
Hyperliquid’s BTC Spot Volume Temporarily Exceeds Coinbase and Bybit Totals
Liquidity markers around the announcement bolstered attention on the exchange. A data point shared by Syncracy Capital’s Ryan Watkins indicated that Hyperliquid’s 24 hour BTC spot volume briefly surpassed the combined totals of Coinbase and Bybit, highlighting recent shifts in order flow to on chain venues.
The claim drew industry responses, including a disclosure of a HYPE long position by Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz.
“Just now, BTC spot on Hyperliquid did more 24H volume than Coinbase and Bybit combined.”
The market is not pricing in Hyperliquid spot markets ramping alongside perps.
The Everything Exchange™️ https://t.co/BhscwcfqIL pic.twitter.com/vkPyY0KSK0
— Ryan Watkins (@RyanWatkins_) August 24, 2025
Market pricing moved alongside the discussion. HYPE traded higher intraday, with prints moving from the low to mid 40s in the hours after Hayes’s remarks, as coverage of the 126x slide circulated. Price action remained volatile in line with broad crypto conditions and the token’s concentrated float.
The framework’s core variables are observable. Stablecoin supply growth affects the depth of dollar liquidity available for derivatives trading. Exchange share in that flow determines fee capture. A net take rate applied to notional volume converts activity into revenues.
The discount rate and terminal multiple translate revenues into a token value proxy. Variations in any of these inputs would move the implied upside materially relative to the 126x headline.
Hayes’s presentation places Hyperliquid within a set of protocols competing for stablecoin driven trading. The thesis assumes continued migration of volumes from centralized venues to decentralized execution.
It also assumes that Hyperliquid’s token mechanics transmit fee growth to HYPE holders in line with the model’s accrual pathway. Investors will test those assumptions against realized volumes, fee schedules, and liquidity dispersion across rival platforms over the coming quarters.
At the time of press, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is trading at $45.61, reflecting a +4.66% change over the last 24 hours.
